Dec 26, 2014

#读书笔记 #1 A Random Walk Down Wall Street (Chapter 3)

Chapter 3: Speculative Bubbles from the Sixties into the Nineties

By the 1990s, institutions accounted for more than 90% of the trading volume on the NYSE.

1. The Soaring Sixties

1.1 The Growth-Stock/New-Issue Craze
In the 1959-1962 period, "Growth" was the magic word. Growth companies such as IBM and TI sold at more than 80 multiples of P/E (A year later they sold at multiples in the 20s and 30s). It was called "tronics boom", because the stock offerings often include some garbled version of "electronics" in their title. The tronics boom came back to earth in 1962. Yesterday's hot issue became today's cold turkey.

1.2 Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom
Part of the genius of the financial market is that if a product is demanded, it is produced. The product that all investors desired was expected growth in earnings per share. By the mid-1960s, creative entrepreneurs suggested that growth could be created by synergism.

In fact, the major impetus for the conglomerate wave of the 1960s was that the acquisition process itself could be made to produce growth in earnings per share - manipulation of P/E multiples. The trick that makes the game work is the ability of the electronics company to swap its high-multiple stock for the stock of another company with a lower multiple.

The aftermath of this speculative phase revealed two disturbing factors. First, conglomerates could not always control their far-flung empires. Second, the government and the accounting profession expressed concern about the pace of mergers and about possible abuses.

An interesting footnote is that during the 1990s and early 2000s, de-conglomeration came into fashion. Many of these sales were financed through a popular innovation, the leveraged buyout (LBO).

1.3 Performance Comes to the Market: The Bubble in Concept Stocks
"Performance" fund concentrated the portfolio in dynamic stocks, which had a good story to tell, and at the first sign of an even better story, they would quickly switch. Performance investing took hold of Wall Street in the late 1960s. "Since we hear story early, we can figure enough people will be hearing it in the next few days to give the stock a bounce. even if the story doesn't prove out."

Why did these stocks perform so badly later on? One general answer: their price-earnings multiples were inflated beyond reason. These companies were run by executives who were primarily promoters. not sharp-penciled operating managers.

2. The Nifty Fifty
In the 1970s, Wall Street's pros vowed to return to "sound principles". Concepts were out and blue-chip companies were in. "Big capitalization" stocks (Nifty Fifty) meant that an institution could buy a good-size position without disturbing the market. Hard as it is to believe, institutions started to speculate in blue chips. They once again proved the maxim that stupidity well packaged can sound like wisdom. The craze ended like all other speculative manias.

3. The Roaring Eighties
The high-tech, new-issue boom of the first half of 1983 was an almost perfect replica of the 1960s episodes, with the names altered slightly to include the new fields of biotechnology and microelectronics. During the late 1980s, most biotechnology stocks lost three-quarters of their market value. Even real technology revolutions do not guarantee benefits for investors.

4. What Does It All Mean?
Styles and fashions in investors' evaluations of securities can and often do play a critical role in the pricing of securities. The stock market at times conforms well to the castle-in-the-air theory. For this reason, the game of investing can be extremely dangerous.

5. An International Example: The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks
One of the largest booms and bursts of the late 20th century involved the Japanese real estate and stock markets. From 1955 to 1990, the value of Jap. real estate increased more than 75 times. By 1990,  tot. value of Jap. real estate was estimated at ~20 trillion - equal to >20% of the entire world's wealth, or about double the tot. value of the world's stock market, or five times as much as all American property. The high value of Jap. land was "explained" by both the density of Jap. population and the various regulation and tax laws restricting the use of habitable land.

Jap. stocks sold at >60 times earnings, almost 5 times book value, and >200 times dividends. In contrast, US stocks 15 P/E; UK stocks 12 P/E. Supporters of the stock market had answers to all the logical objections that could be raised. One being that the book values did not reflect the dramatic appreciation of the land owned by Jap. companies. (Sam: "what is the relationship between real estate and stock ?")

Weakness of Jap. economy at that time:
1) Even when earnings were adjusted, the multiples were still far higher than in other countries and extraordinarily inflated relative to Japan's own history;
2) Jap. profitability had been declining, and the the strong yen was bound to make it more difficult for Japan to export;
3) although land was scarce in Japan, its manufacturers  (e.g. auto makers) were finding abundant land for new plants at attractive prices in foreign lands;
4) Rental income had been rising for more slowly than land values, indicating a falling rate of return on real estate;
5) The low interest rates that had been underpinning the market had already begun to rise in 1989.

The BOJ saw the ugly specter of a general inflation stirring amid the borrowing frenzy and the liquidity boom underwriting the rise in land and stock prices. And so the central bank restricted credit and engineered a rise in interest rates. The hope was that further rises in property prices would be choked off and the stock market might be eased downward. INSTEAD, it collapsed. The fall was almost as extreme as the US stock crash from the end of 1929 to mid-1932.

The rise in stock prices during the mid- and late 1980s represented a change in valuation relationships. The fall  in stock prices from 1990 on simply reflected a return to the price-to-book-value relationships that were typical in the early 1980s. The air also rushed out of the real estate balloon during the early 1990s.



Dec 22, 2014

纽约:布鲁克林

此行去纽约的主要目的是摩登天空音乐节:一番瞎折腾真是只是为了周日下午2点顶着大太阳听万青唱一次“杀死那个石家庄人”。好久没有这么冲动过了。而这真的只是因为有一次和少年在一起的时候,听到那句歌词“夜幕覆盖华北平原”,突然萌生了个奇怪的想法:好像华北平原就是我们俩的,而我们总有一天要一起回家。我被自己的修辞方式感动,还偷偷掉了几滴眼泪;文科生果然莫名其妙!

夜幕覆盖华北平原(示意图) 来源:网络
难得去一趟纽约,于是还是决定周六一早出发,好趁机去转转纽约还没探索过的地方。这次我们把重点放在布鲁克林Williamsburg区。这一带近些年火了,吸引了诸多小众餐馆和小众店铺,主打是非主流小清新元素。比较遗憾的是这次没有赶上大名鼎鼎的Smorgasburg市集,明年开春了可要去看个究竟!

Pizza: Roberta's
261 Moore Street, Brooklyn, NY 11206

说起纽约美食,恐怕十有八九会提到Pizza。根据维基百科,全美国的第一家pizza店就起源在纽约的小意大利区。虽然没有明确的定义,但是纽约pizza的主要特点有:饼皮薄,边缘焦黑并鼓有气泡(据说饼皮质地和当地的水质有关),配以原浆西红柿酱和mozzarella奶酪。这种薄饼Pizza的意大利老祖宗是那不勒斯披萨(Neapolitan Pizza),与之对应的芝加哥深盘Pizza则起源于西西里披萨(Sicilian Pizza)。

我们尝试的是位于Bushwick的Roberta's。这家店全方位地诠释了布鲁克林stereotype:从室内装潢到服务生的调调都hipster到了骨子里!我们错开了饭点,两点多到店,天还下着雨,但结果还是要等位子。一家已经开了6年的餐馆,还一直保持着如此的活力和吸引力,实在是佩服;纽约总是给人满满的正能量!

前菜是Roasted Little Gem,对半切开的奶油小生菜烤的温软,配上龙蒿(tarragon香草类)、小红萝卜、菇娘(husk cherry/灯笼果)。温热的沙拉已经很新奇,而菇娘无论从颜色或者口感都给整盘菜加了几分惊喜。

Roasted Little Gem $14
我们要的Pizza是Roy Rogers,配料单如下:西红柿,Prairie Breeze奶酪(一种cheddar),prosciutto cotto(熟意大利火腿),青椒,洋葱,鸡蛋,辣椒。让人惊喜的,虽然配料单这么长,但各味原料间都互相搭配的非常和谐,没有哪一个显得突兀。溏心蛋更是加分!

Roy Rogers Pizza $16

Donuts: Dough @ Black Brick Coffee
300 Bedford Avenue, Brooklyn, NY 11211

Dough的多纳圈大名鼎鼎,我们虽然没去它的实体店,但却误打误撞在Black brick coffee吃到了它家的多纳圈,口味是hibiscus(木槿花)。根据serious eats的介绍,多纳圈有以下两大做法:天然酵母发酵式(yeast donuts),顾名思义口感相对蓬松轻盈;以及蛋糕式(cake donuts),用泡打粉或苏打粉来蓬发,口感湿润有弹性。Dough的多纳圈都属于前者,吃起来感觉不会很heavy,木槿花的糖衣偏酸也中和了一部分甜腻。他家还有很多其他新鲜的口味,下次有机会要尝尝Tropical Chili:芒果+木瓜+番石榴+菠萝+……辣椒!

Hibiscus Donuts
附我小时候对多纳圈的印象是这样的:

来源:网络
French bakery: Caprices by Sophie
138 North 6th Street, Brooklyn, NY 11249

小清新法式糕点店,一个金领大姐2011年辞职开的,网站about版面介绍她"From Banking to Baking":大概意思就是"本店不以盈利为目的"吧?主要出售三种糕点,分别是Magic choux(泡芙),Merveilleux(奶油馅法式蛋白酥,店里称为Capricieux),Eclairs(手指泡芙)。我们尝试了椰子口味的Merveilleux,味道非常像白色的费列罗。纯靠蛋白打发的甜品有两个通病:一是一碰就碎很难有任何质感上的层次,二是全靠糖来支撑结构所以难免死甜。说你呢,马卡龙……

泡芙
一颗白色的费列罗 来源:网络


怀石料理:Zenkichi
77 North 6th Street, Brooklyn, NY 11211

根据维基百科,仅有两种地域性饮食被纳入了世界非物质文化遗产:日本料理(和食/Washoku)和地中海菜(包括意大利、西班牙、希腊等)。虽然有点替其他的餐饮大国(中国?法国?)打抱不平,但细细想来,要论当地饮食习惯中的文化烙印,还真是拼不过日本和地中海诸国。

日料重视用餐礼仪和范式(有关延伸阅读可以点这里),怀石料理就是个典型代表。怀石料理最早是茶道前主人请客人品尝的菜肴。茶道植根于禅宗,“怀石”二字也颇有佛教渊源:僧人戒律要求过午不食,因此他们会用怀抱温热的石头来抵抗饥饿。和茶道的风格类似,怀石料理的特点是道数繁复、食材多样、有严格上菜顺序、每样菜量少精致、并且极端讲究餐具的选择和食物的摆放。

说到这里,不得不感叹起源于三百年前的怀石料理竟深得当今tasting menu之精髓。不出所料,据我们观察,在Zenkicih用餐的客人大多也选择了tasting而不是单点,况且65刀/七道菜的定价根本性价比无敌好吗!副博主猜测这样高的性价比其实是店家的小技量:诱惑大多数人点设计好的套餐,大大降低了后厨备菜上的不确定性,也就减少了很多不必要的成本。哦,副博主你好聪明!

这家店的就餐环境相当日式,灯光昏暗,用竹帘将桌与桌分开成相对独立的空间,服务员除了上菜不会出现,要通过桌上的无线呼叫器来示意。体验菜单的设计一气呵成,基本就是依据传统的怀石料理习俗:

  • 味噌汤:使用的是油豆腐丝,而非常见的小块丝豆腐
  • 生鱼片和浸物:亮点是酱油浸比目鱼片卷茗荷丝(Myoga-ginger)
  • 沙拉和炸物:这两道菜都有惊艳到。沙拉中的豆腐是本店自己做的,非常软糯,介于豆花和豆渣之间,确实入口即化。炸物是豆腐皮卷的虾和杏鲍菇,豆腐皮很酥但不是韧性,搭配内部多汁的虾和杏鲍菇,口感和口味都非常丰富。
  • 鳕鱼西京烧/和牛:中规中矩,不做特别评价,鱼肉略有一些油腻
  • 石狩丼(三文鱼炊饭):炊饭里带牛蒡和油豆腐,质感类似醋饭,是三文鱼和鱼籽的极佳搭配
  • 甜品:可以从四样中任选一样,我们尝试了峰冈豆腐(其实是一种布丁)和黑芝麻冰激凌(这个好吃!)。买单附送两块松露巧克力,博主好开心!

2014秋季 Tasting Menu
沙拉和炸物
炊饭
黑芝麻冰激凌

Dec 21, 2014

#读书笔记 #1 A Random Walk down Wall Street (Chapter 1-2)

副博主近期决定投身到全职炒股票的事业中去,为了显示副博主的敬业精神+B格,今天隆重推出#读书笔记#系列。


About the author
Burton Malkiel is Emeritus Professor in Department of Economic at Princeton University. He is a leading proponent of the efficient-market hypothesis and in general supports buying and holding index funds as the most effective portfolio-management strategy. He also spent 28 years as a director of the Vanguard Group.

Chapter 1: Firm Foundations and Castle in the Air

Inflation
In US and most of the developed world, inflation fell to 2% in the early 2000s, and some believe that relative price stability will continue indefinitely. (True? What affect inflation?) What is the possibility that inflation will accelerate again at some time in the future? Productivity growth accelerated in the 1990s and 2000s, but history tells us the pace of improvement has always been uneven. Moreover, productivity improvement is hard to come by in some service-oriented activities (like musicians, surgeon, etc).

Firm-foundation Theory
It relies on some tricky forecasts of the extent and duration of future growth (dividend, cash distribution, etc.). An influential book is Security Analysis (by B. Graham and D. Dodd).

Castle-in-the-air Theory
The castle-in-the-air theory concentrates on psychic values ("greater fool" theory).
Every investor should remember: Res tantum valet quantum vendi potest (A thing is worth only what someone else will pay for it).

Chapter 2: The Madness of Crowds

GREED RUN AMOK
has been an essential feature of every spectacular boom in history. Remember the movie Margin Call ? "I am here for one reason and one reason alone. I am here to guess what the music might do a week, a month, a year from now. That's it. Nothing more..." Unsustainable prices may persist for years, but eventually they reverse themselves.

Tulip-bulb Craze and South Sea Bubble
Part of the genius of financial markets is that when there is a real demand for a method to enhance speculative opportunities, the market will surely provide it.

Options provide one way to leverage one's investment to increase the potential rewards as well as the risks. Such devices helped to ensure broad participation in the market. The same is true today.

As happens in all speculative crazes, prices eventually got so high that some people decide they would be prudent and sell their bulbs.

Big losers in the South Sea Bubble included Isaac Newton, who exclaimed, "I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."

Wall Street lays an egg (1929)
Calvin Coolidge - "The business of America is business." Stock market speculation was central to the culture.
Specialist could be so valuable to the pool manager. The book gave information about the extent of existing orders to buy and sell at prices below and above the current market. Wash sales created the impression that something big was afoot.

Monday, October 21, 1929: The stage was set for a classic stock market break. The declines in stock price had led to calls for more collateral from margin buyers. Unable or unwilling to meet the calls, these customers were forced to sell their holdings. This depressed prices and led to more margin calls and finally to a self-sustaining selling wave.

The crash in the stock market was followed by the most devastating depression in history. History teaches us that very sharp increases in stock prices are seldom followed by a gradual return to relative price stability. Even if prosperity had continued into the 1930s, stock prices could never has sustained their advance of the late 1920s. In addition, the anomalous behavior of close-end investment company shares provides clinching evidence of wide-scale stock market irrationality during the 1920s. From January to August 1929, the typical closed-end fund sold at a premium of 50%.

An afterword
It is not hard to make money in the market. What is hard to avoid is the alluring temptation to throw your money away on short, get-rich-quick speculative binges. It is an obvious lesson, but one frequently ignored.




Dec 20, 2014

西雅图之美食篇

被副博主抢先发布了西雅图日志,博主好不甘心!有咖啡篇把收视率拉高,美食篇可要延续优良传统,再接再厉呢。


Bakery Nouveau
4737 California Ave SW, Seattle, WA 98116

这家法式烘焙坊在城市西边(西郊?),也是我们下了飞机歇脚的第一站。店里主打起酥类的糕点,其中又以twice baked croissant最出名。(这家店的Chef William Leaman 曾经带领美国队赢得过2005年烘焙世界杯/“Coupe du Monde de Boulangerie”,一个在法国举办但法国队从来没赢过的比赛)。

Twice-baked croissant是指先烤好plain croissant,再在其中加入馅料(巧克力/杏仁糖浆)进行二次烘焙。遗憾的是,二次烘焙破坏了原本croissant酥皮的轻盈感,使得成品更为紧实,外表留下了一圈很脆的“外壳儿”,内馅也则像蛋糕一样比较敦实。

O2点评:这也能叫croissant?妈呀,我再也不抱怨美国人把水饺、锅贴、小笼包都叫dumpling了。这是搞笑呢吧?


Twice-baked Chocolate Croissant
Variety of Cookies


The Crumpet Shop (@ Pike Place Market)
1503 1st Avenue Seattle, WA 98101

这轻食店临着旅游旺地Pike Place Market,主营英式点心Crumpet和茶,走爱丽丝梦游仙境装修路线。Crumpet是一种小松饼,外形类似切开的半个English muffin,表面有很多小洞洞。与English muffin不同,crumpet是直接从面糊烘煎而成,无需揉搓成面团,因此口感和质地更软,更接近Pancake。据说表面的洞洞可以更好地锁住抹上去的黄油和奶酪,这点和华夫饼(waffle)有异曲同工之妙。

这家店里提供三大类Crumpet,分别是甜口、咸口和“带鸡蛋的”(这个分类太莫名其妙了)。我们尝试了经典的青酱西红柿配帕尔马奶酪屑,青酱是温的很新鲜,可惜是味道比较冲有些盖过了Crumpet本身。甜口则是搭配Ricotta奶酪和果酱/坚果。

Very British Decor
Pesto, Tomato & Parmesan Crumpet


Ellenos Real Greek Yogurt (@ Pike Place Market)
Corner Market, 1500 Pike Pl Seattle, WA 98101

Yelp评分高达5.0的神店!说来惭愧,我们只是误打误撞路过被发到Sample,当时根本没有意识到这家店竟然有如此好评。小小的店只有一个临街的窗口,散装Greek Yogurt以一种很新颖的方式来卖:色彩层次感爆棚的各种口味像Gelato一样展示在橱窗里供顾客挑选,盛到透明的杯子里就好像圣代冰激凌一样。哦,娇滴滴的西雅图!

但最让我惊讶的是,酸奶本身的质地是很软很柔和的。以前总是吃市售的盒装Greek Yogurt,导致我一度以为希腊酸奶免不了“凝块”和“回涩”(说你呢FAGE 0%)。一查发现希腊酸奶只是“脱乳清酸奶”的代名词而已,不知道普通酸奶拿纱布过滤一下是不是就行?

O2点评:西雅图版本的“文宇奶酪店”@“南锣鼓巷”。红豆双皮奶和香芋奶酪,我想你们了!

图片来源: Yelp


Beecher's Handmade Cheese (@ Pike Place Market)
1600 Pike Place Seattle, WA 981011

这家店最吸引人的是对外通透的奶酪工作室,游客可以看到奶酪制作的全过程。店里除了零售成品奶酪外,也做奶酪主题的菜品,卖的最好的当属Mac & Cheese,号称world's best。我们尝试了双拼的原味和Miriachi口味(墨西哥风情)。Mac & Cheese是经典美国儿童餐(其他还有Grilled Cheese和PB&J三明治,天哪我真为美国的未来担忧),也因此是Comfort Food的典型代表。其中Macaroni泛指通心粉,这家店使用的是斜切的Penne(更为常见的则是使用弯管通心粉);奶酪一般是多种奶酪的混合,一般会选用酸味较重(sharp)的种类,如cheddar。

说来有趣,华盛顿州并不是奶制品大州,但Beecher's却算得上西雅图地标店铺之一,与第一家星巴克的盛名不相上下,门面上也只有几户之隔。不过相比起星巴克,这家奶酪店可年轻太多了,是个不折不扣的00后:西雅图大本营2002年开始营业,2008年第二家分店落户纽约。不知道这家店的成功有多少归功于地域性抄底房地产市场呢?

O2点评:“看到这么多人为这里的cheese排队,第二故乡在威斯康辛的少年顿时心里起了那么一点点悲凉。这悲凉有点熟悉,他想——就像第一次在异乡吃到煎饼果子时一样。“

双拼Mac n' Cheese
奶酪制作间 图片来源:Yelp


Lola
2000 4th Avenue Seattle, WA 98121

说到西雅图的餐饮界,不得不提“一哥”Tom Douglas。西雅图他旗下的店面多达十好几家,而且风格迥异:烘焙坊、小酒馆、比萨饼、海鲜大餐、日本料理……从风评看来,这哥们做什么像什么,开什么火什么,叫人好不佩服。

我们晚餐选择的这家Lola就隶属于Tom Douglas的餐饮集团,走地中海+非洲菜系。虽然这两个菜系本身不怎么搭边,但都非常适合family style的就餐风格:地中海烧烤(kebab)和非洲塔吉锅(Tagine)分量大但味道相对单一,适合点一份全桌分享;各种spread和Meze则设计的量小精致,让每个人有尝试到更多不同菜品的机会。

不过这一餐最惊艳的是甜点:Kataifi cheesecake。与其说是芝士蛋糕,这道甜点的质地更接近奶冻,主体部分下层是粗粒面粉布丁(semolina pudding),上层则是玫瑰口味的希腊酸奶慕斯(rose-scented greek yogurt mousse on top)。搭配的杏仁面丝脆饼(Kataifi)增加了酥脆的元素,但脆饼本身入口会有些扎嘴,正好可以用盘中橙子+香草口味的糖浆来浸润软身。色彩上大胆使用红醋栗瞬间获得亮点,而零零星星的开心果碎则给增加了几分不规则的美感。

O2点评:此甜点绝对是2014年年度最佳的有力候选。

Meze Sampler
Kataifi cheesecake


这次在西雅图尝试的其他几家店,附简评如下:
  • Tilikum Cafe:Brunch的Dutch babies baked pancake小有名气,直接端整个铸铁锅上桌,馅料有甜咸可选,口感上类似布丁,值得一试 (407 Cedar Street)
  • Issian:当地同学推荐的日本料理,菜品选择丰富,有烤鸡串、章鱼小丸子等居酒屋小菜,最出名的是烤鱼脖子 (1618 N 45th St)
  • Molly Moon's Homemade Ice Cream:西雅图local冰激凌,尝试了薰衣草口味和葡萄醋+草莓口味 (1622 1/2 North 45th Street)

还要特别纪念在奥林匹克国家公园里Folks小镇的这顿晚饭。旅行途中到处找好吃的店,偶尔换换口味,采购新鲜的食材自己在住处拌沙拉、佐冷切、品红酒,可是比吃到山珍海味还要开心呢:

小李厨房 华盛顿州 pop-up kitchen

Dec 11, 2014

西雅图之咖啡篇

鉴于某位同学的西雅图美食篇一直拖稿,副博主决定插播一下西雅图咖啡篇,抢抢收视率。

作为全美人均咖啡馆最多的城市和星巴克的发源地,来到Seattle必须要喝几杯咖啡。在西雅图的短短几天,深深地感受到了咖啡文化在这里的普及。几乎每一个block都会有至少一家咖啡馆,即使在开往Mount Rainier National Park的路上,也随处可见espresso booth。

第1站: Seattle Coffee Works
http://www.seattlecoffeeworks.com/

来到西雅图的第一杯咖啡献给了这家店,就在The Public Market门口。这家店最出名的就是它的slow brew bar,现磨现泡,而且有多种slow brew方法可以选择。博主和副博主于是选择了从来没试过的Vaccum Pot。咖啡的味道一般,但是brewrista操作Vaccum Pot的过程还是很享受的。



第2站: Storyville Coffee Company
http://www.storyville.com/

坐落在The Public Market对面building的二楼,强烈推荐!整家店的设计简洁时尚,细节之处一丝不苟,brewrista也十分专业,喝到了本次Seattle之行的最佳Latte。




第3站: Original Starbucks

没有喝咖啡,来到这里更多的是像Starbucks致敬。尽管近年来已经不再常常光顾Starbucks,而是更多的支持local small coffee house,但是没有Starbucks,也许就没有咖啡文化在美国和亚洲的普及。









Dec 9, 2014

无题 2014/12/9

“。。我发现台湾人都特别喜欢带这种凤梨酥,上次来我家party的那个James,他回台湾也带的是这种。”
“叫什么名字?”
“(胸有成竹地)叫什么什么凤梨酥。”